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The recent foiled terrorist plot in Germany has redefined the targets for Jihadists. Previously many Germans felt safe, because former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's opposition to the Second Iraq War.(1) Statements from Bin Laden like “Why did we not attack Sweden?” made many think that Jihadists opposition to America was only based on disapproval of American Foreign Policy. The Germans and other European nations could tell themselves that if they did not bother the Muslim states, their would be no terrorism. One must remember that the only European Nations that experienced Post-September 11th terrorism attacks were Spain and England, both of whom participates in the Second Iraq War.
This thought is somewhat foolish, considering that the United States was not in Iraq or Afghanistan during September 11th.(2) Also, prior to September 11th the Middle East had not become any more of an important region in US foreign policy thinking since the Carter Doctrine, and less important since Presidents Carter and Reagan supported the Anti-Communist forces in Afghanistan, Northern Alliance and Mujahadine.(3) Sometimes one dose not have the option of supporting ideological allies.(4)
What are the reasons for the thwarted terrorist attacks in Germany? This is a question that one must ask. They don’t fit any of the “Legitimate” reasons for terrorist attacks on a Nation. Germans did not participate in the Second Iraq War. Germans were not in the Middle East, supposedly propping up illegitimate regimes. They did republish the Danish Cartoons that showed the profit Mohamed with a bomb on his head. Clearly an insensitive act, but how dose this justify killing individuals that had nothing to do with the publication? And why not attack Denmark, the Nation where the Cartoons were first published? Attacking Denmark would send a very clear message that more insensitive cartoons would cause terrorism.
One Good answer would be that the Jihadists are fractured. The implementation of policies like the monitoring of known terrorist cell phones and robbing Jihadists of a save haven like Afghanistan, must make communication between Jihadists almost impossible and very slow. A “Foreign Policy” cannot be conducted by one man, like Bin Laden. This has caused splinter groups that tend to be more extreme, like Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who through their brutal tactics have hurt their cause. Note, Bin Laden’s messages to Zarqawi to stop be-headings, because they hurt the cause. Also the Bombings in Jordan that killed one couple that was going to get married could not have helped. Is the German case an other splinter cell, the answer is almost definitely. Either the terrorists were disgruntled Muslim-Germans or Muslims not under the authority of Bin Laden. Either way the Jihadists were opposed to Western values/society and that is the motivation for their belligerence.
Having splinter cells will not allow the Jihadists to conduct a forgien policy. Having Al-Qaeda direct all of the attacks could send a simple message to the world. Don’t cooperate with America, and we won’t bother you. This would cause a greater rift in the Trans-Atlantic Alliance, and make European publics to have greater support for opposing American Policy. Now, Europeans are more likely to see this as a War from Jiahdists on Western values. It is hard to imagine even the people who most adamantly support passiveism, to curtail their own hard fought freedoms to appease Jihadists.
Notes
1. This is true but the Germans participated in the Second Iraq War in a very behind the since manner. Including using German Navy vessels to patrol the sea lanes that the Americans were prier to the War, and dispatching HASMAT teams to Kuwait.
2. It is hard to argue that the post-bellum containment of the Secular and Belligerent Iraq would offend Jihadist, because Saddam represented the type of governments that Jihadists desired to over through.
3. The First Gulf War conflict or Desert Shield/Desert Storm is an action committed in the spirit of the Carter Doctrine.
4. This policy was necessary to prove to the USSR that an other war would bankrupt the nation that consistently spent around 15% of its GDP on their military, to put this in to perspective the United States today spends about 4% of its GDP on the military. And to end the madness of MAD or mutual assured destruction.
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