Iran has been in the news much recently; from its nuclear program, to its arming of militants in Iraq, and of course, recently with the capturing of 15 British sailors and then releasing them back to Britain. What also has been in the news is a possible invasion of Iran by the United States. This has especially been worrying to many because of the increased rhetoric of the Bush administration against Iran; much of the rhetoric and maneuvering towards Iran looks eerily similar to the position the United States took against Iraq in the last quarter of 2002. But is an invasion of Iran plausible, especially in today's political climate?First, we should look at the country itself. Iran has a population of over 68-and-a-half million people with a land mass of 1.636 million sq. km. (1) Iraq only has a population of 26.783 million and a land mass of 432,162 sq. km. (2)
The U.S. military is already having enough trouble as it is in its occupation of Iraq and many military experts and ex-generals are critical of the current quagmire in Iraq saying that it is taxing the Army and stretching U.S. forces too thin. The downgrading of the famed 82nd Airborne is just one example of this.
Yet, despite all of this why would some in the Pentagon and the White House want to invade Iran, despite the fact that Iran's meddling in the resistance forces in Iraq is likely minimal at this time? Well, for one some neo-cons (the neo-con philosophy has been widely discredited in conservative foreign policy circles in Washington) think that one of the main factors for lack of success in Iraq is because of the "meddling" from Iran. Yet even if this was the case (more likely true on a smaller scale than a larger scale) invading Iran would make the situation in Iraq, and the Middle East, worse of the United States, not better. And many of the imperial wishes of the U.S. would go up in smoke. Another reason could be the fact that many within the Bush administration want to re-rally the American public with more drumbeats of war, hoping that the public would rally behind the White House as they did post-9-11 and during the first phases of the Iraq War. Yet this is also likely to backfire on them because of the recent mid-term elections (with even more loses likely in 2008, unless the Democrats overstretch their mandate from the voters) and the increased public antagonism against the Bush administration and against the Iraq War.
With these factors it may be the case that the wishes to go to war against Iran are just that, wishes, and not a reality. It could have been possible that if the Republicans managed to hold the House and Senate that there could have been an invasion of Iran (all though with the over stretching of American resources the invasion would have probably been quite weak), but this seems no longer possible. If anything we might see a small air war and special forces actions in Iran as we saw in Cambodia and Laos yet that too is subject to public criticism as well as a backlash by Congress.
With all of this it seems that an invasion, while still possible, might not come into fruition anytime soon.
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